Playoff Betting in 2010
The National Football League's playoff season is upon us and even though the playoffs are among the most difficult games to predict, many fans, including some who don't usually gamble on sports, will be getting in on the action. Playoff betting introduces some new factors that don't come up during the regular season. Some more important points:
- playoffs offer a limited schedule - not as many options for Teasers or Parlays
- Weather is a more pronounced factor - make sure you are very careful about playing a warm weather road team going to a cold environment.
- The Home Effect
In his study about late season home dogs, Richard Borghesi of Texas State University found that there was a statistically significant number of wins by home underdog teams to justify a winning formula. In studying NFL games from 1981 to 2000, he found that late season home dogs (weeks 15-18) beat the spread by an average of 4.46 points. You do have to keep in mind that there aren't a ton of games to choose from so the sample size is relatively small, but there were enough samples to justify a statistical trend. In the playoffs, the home dog won by an average of 11.3 points (again small sample).
You may wonder how this lines up against weeks 1-14. On average, visitors win by.09 points when taking into account all of the games (damn those odds-makers are good). In weeks 15-18 however, home teams win by an average of 2.06 points, and home teams in the playoffs win by an average of 2.86 points. Betting late home underdogs was profitable in each of the 5 year increments studied from 1981-2000.
Borghesi also found some interesting trends about cold weather teams and weather's effect on them. In August-September, cold weather teams lost against the spread by an average of 1.3 points. In October, they won by.84 points against the spread. By November, they were winning by an average of 1.49 points and by December-Jan it was up to 1.93 points.
Just some interesting numbers to consider as the playoffs start.
The National Football League's playoff season is upon us and even though the playoffs are among the most difficult games to predict, many fans, including some who don't usually gamble on sports, will be getting in on the action. Playoff betting introduces some new factors that don't come up during the regular season. Some more important points:
- playoffs offer a limited schedule - not as many options for Teasers or Parlays
- Weather is a more pronounced factor - make sure you are very careful about playing a warm weather road team going to a cold environment.
- The Home Effect
In his study about late season home dogs, Richard Borghesi of Texas State University found that there was a statistically significant number of wins by home underdog teams to justify a winning formula. In studying NFL games from 1981 to 2000, he found that late season home dogs (weeks 15-18) beat the spread by an average of 4.46 points. You do have to keep in mind that there aren't a ton of games to choose from so the sample size is relatively small, but there were enough samples to justify a statistical trend. In the playoffs, the home dog won by an average of 11.3 points (again small sample).
You may wonder how this lines up against weeks 1-14. On average, visitors win by.09 points when taking into account all of the games (damn those odds-makers are good). In weeks 15-18 however, home teams win by an average of 2.06 points, and home teams in the playoffs win by an average of 2.86 points. Betting late home underdogs was profitable in each of the 5 year increments studied from 1981-2000.
Borghesi also found some interesting trends about cold weather teams and weather's effect on them. In August-September, cold weather teams lost against the spread by an average of 1.3 points. In October, they won by.84 points against the spread. By November, they were winning by an average of 1.49 points and by December-Jan it was up to 1.93 points.
Just some interesting numbers to consider as the playoffs start.
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